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Odds and House Edge in Baccarat

Here are some of the basic odds and probabilities that you will find in the game of baccarat:

Baccarat Commission

For anybody playing baccarat at an online casino or at most live casinos, a 5% commission is charge for betting on the banker. You will find a 4% commission at some live casinos, but never online.

Because the probability of the banker winning is higher, this evens out the amount taken out by the commission and gives you the house advantage listed below.

House Advantage

baccarat oddsThe house advantage can be different whether or not the shoe that the cards are dealt from consists of 6 or 8 decks. Generally, the easiest way to determine how many decks the casino is using is by seeing what the payout is for a tie. If the payout is 8 to 1, then you can assume that there is six decks being used. If the tie payout is 9 to 1, then eight decks are probably being used.

This isn't always the case, but there should be some indications even with online baccarat games whether or not six or eight decks are being used.

There is a significant difference in house advantage between casinos that pay 9 to 1 on a tie as opposed to an 8 to 1 payout. You will see this below.

Eight Decks Odds and House Advantage

On Banker bet - A winning bet on the banker will pay 19/20 or 95% of your bet. There is a house advantage of 1.06% on the Banker bet. The probability of the Banker bet winning is 45.9%.

On Player bet - A winning bet on a Player bet pays 1 to 1. Betting on the Player gives the house a 1.24% advantage. The probability of the Player bet winning is 44.6%.

On Tie bet - A tie has a 9.5% chance of happening.  If a winning bet pays 8 to 1, then the house advantage is 14.36%. If it pays 9 to 1, the house advantage is 4.84%.

There are roughly 5,000 trillion possible combinations and there is no way to break this down any further.

Six Decks Odds and House Advantage

You'll notice that these percentages seem to be the exact same. They aren't in reality, but the actual totals only vary by a couple thousandths or a percentile.

The one thing that you will notice that is a little unexpected is that there is a slightly higher house advantage for playing the Tie bet with only six decks.

On Banker bet - A winning bet on the banker will pay 19/20 or 95% of your bet. There is a house advantage of 1.06% on the Banker bet. The probability of the Banker bet winning is 45.9%.

On Player bet - A winning bet on a Player bet pays 1 to 1. Betting on the Player gives the house a 1.24% advantage. The probability of the Player bet winning is 44.6%.

On Tie bet - A tie has a 9.5% chance of happening.  If a winning bet pays 8 to 1, then the house advantage is 14.44%. If it pays 9 to 1, the house advantage is 4.93%.

With six decks, there are about 900 trillion different possible outcomes for the hand.

Why does the Banker have an advantage over the Player?

The reason the banker has an advantage in baccarat is because they get to act last. If the player takes a third card and makes his hand better, the dealer gets to take a card to try to beat that score. If the player takes the third card and it makes his hand worse, the dealer will stay.

How can you tell if an online casino is playing through a shoe of cards or shuffling after each hand?

There is no easy way to tell. For a six deck shoe, you would have a possibility of between 52 (6 cards played each hand) and 78 (4 cards played each hand) hands in a shoe, eight decks is between 69 and 104 hands.

If you were able to keep track of how many times a particular card came up before the minimum number of hands is played, you could find out say if the 3 of clubs came up 7 times in a six deck shoe.

Other than that, you would have to be a very good card counter.